Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters
Boero, Gianna , Smith, Jeremy (Jeremy P.) and Wallis, Kenneth Frank (2006) Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economic research papers (No.811).
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This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Bank of England, Economic forecasting -- Great Britain, Econometric models, Economic surveys -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1997-|
|Series Name:||Warwick economic research papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick, Department of Economics|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Official Date:||October 2006|
|Number of Pages:||31|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|Version or Related Resource:||Published version: Boero, G., Smith, J.P. and Wallis, K.F. (2008). Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Economic Journal, 118(530), pp. 1107-1127. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/29851|
Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica, 61, 821-856.
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