The Library
Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 : discrete SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) modeling using empirical infection data
Tools
McMahon, Andrew and Robb, Nicole C. (2020) Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 : discrete SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) modeling using empirical infection data. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 6 (4). e21168. doi:10.2196/21168 ISSN 2369-2960.
|
PDF
WRAP-Discrete-SIR-modelling-empirical-infection-data-SARS-CoV-2-infection-Robb-2020.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (460Kb) | Preview |
|
PDF
WRAP-Discrete-SIR-modelling-empirical-infection-data-SARS-CoV-2-infection-Robb-2020.pdf - Accepted Version Embargoed item. Restricted access to Repository staff only - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1256Kb) |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.2196/21168
Abstract
Background:
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes the COVID-19 disease, has resulted in a global pandemic. Since its emergence in December 2019, the virus has infected millions of people, caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands, and resulted in incalculable social and economic damage. Understanding the infectivity and transmission dynamics of the virus is essential to determine how best to reduce mortality while ensuring minimal social restrictions on the lives of the general population. Anecdotal evidence is available, but detailed studies have not yet revealed whether infection with the virus results in immunity.
Objective:
The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to investigate the reinfection frequency of COVID-19.
Methods:
We have used the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) framework and random processing based on empirical SARS-CoV-2 infection and fatality data from different regions to calculate the number of reinfections that would be expected to occur if no immunity to the disease occurred.
Results:
Our model predicts that cases of reinfection should have been observed by now if primary SARS-CoV-2 infection did not protect individuals from subsequent exposure in the short term; however, no such cases have been documented.
Conclusions:
This work concludes that infection with SARS-CoV-2 provides short-term immunity to reinfection and therefore offers useful insight for serological testing strategies, lockdown easing, and vaccine development.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
|||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Biomedical Sciences > Cell & Developmental Biology Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Biomedical Sciences Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
|||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases, Communicable diseases -- Diagnosis , Communicable diseases -- Immunological aspects, Communicable diseases -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | JMIR Public Health and Surveillance | |||||||||
Publisher: | JMIR Publications | |||||||||
ISSN: | 2369-2960 | |||||||||
Official Date: | October 2020 | |||||||||
Dates: |
|
|||||||||
Volume: | 6 | |||||||||
Number: | 4 | |||||||||
Article Number: | e21168 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.2196/21168 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 1 October 2020 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 17 February 2021 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
|||||||||
Related URLs: | ||||||||||
Open Access Version: |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year