Clements, Michael P. (2006) Internal consistency of survey respondents’ forecasts: evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. (Warwick economic research papers.

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Abstract

We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these different types of forecasts do not hold for some individuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	National Bureau of Economic Research , Economic forecasting, Rational expectations (Economic theory), Probabilities, Macroeconomics
Series Name:	Warwick economic research papers
Publisher:	University of Warwick, Department of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	16 October 2006
Number:	No.772
Number of Pages:	29
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/1427

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