Internal consistency of survey respondents’ forecasts: evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Clements, Michael P. (2006) Internal consistency of survey respondents’ forecasts: evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economic research papers (No.772).
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We ask whether the different types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the probability distributions. When the expected associations between these different types of forecasts do not hold for some individuals, we consider whether the discrepancies we observe are consistent with rational behaviour by agents with asymmetric loss functions.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||National Bureau of Economic Research , Economic forecasting, Rational expectations (Economic theory), Probabilities, Macroeconomics|
|Series Name:||Warwick economic research papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick, Department of Economics|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Official Date:||16 October 2006|
|Number of Pages:||29|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
Andersen, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. X., and Labys, P. (2003). Modelling and forecasting realized volatility. Econometrica, 71, 579�625.
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