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Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase

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Wang, Liang, Didelot, Xavier, Yang, Jing, Wong, Gary, Shi, Yi, Liu, Wenjun, Gao, George F. and Bi, Yuhai (2020) Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase. Nature Communications, 11 (1). 5006. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4 ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4

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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission, Epidemics -- Transmission
Journal or Publication Title: Nature Communications
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
ISSN: 2041-1723
Official Date: 6 October 2020
Dates:
DateEvent
6 October 2020Published
10 September 2020Accepted
Volume: 11
Number: 1
Article Number: 5006
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 20 October 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 21 October 2020
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
XDA19090118Chinese Academy of SciencesUNSPECIFIED
XDB29010102Chinese Academy of SciencesUNSPECIFIED
32041010[NSFC] National Natural Science Foundation of Chinahttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
31900155[NSFC] National Natural Science Foundation of Chinahttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
JCYJ20180504165549581Shenzhen Science, Technology and Innovation CommissionUNSPECIFIED
31822055[NSFC] National Natural Science Foundation of Chinahttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
2017122Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Scienceshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004739

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