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Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase
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Wang, Liang, Didelot, Xavier, Yang, Jing, Wong, Gary, Shi, Yi, Liu, Wenjun, Gao, George F. and Bi, Yuhai (2020) Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase. Nature Communications, 11 (1). 5006. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
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WRAP-inference-person-to-person-transmission-COVID-19-reveals-hidden-super-spreading-events-during-early-outbreak-phase-Didelot-2020.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (803Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission, Epidemics -- Transmission | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 6 October 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Volume: | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 5006 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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