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The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England
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Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J., Atkins, Benjamin D., Penman, Bridget S., Southall, Emma, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, McKimm, Hector, Gorsich, Erin E., Hill, Edward M. and Dyson, Louise (2021) The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0261
Abstract
By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy.
We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproductive number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social-distancing within the wider community.
We predicted reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social-distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproductive number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases.
Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science > Statistics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) -- Great Britain -- Transmission, Elementary schools -- Great Britain, High schools -- Great Britain | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | |||||||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0962-8436 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 19 July 2021 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 376 | |||||||||
| Number: | 1829 | |||||||||
| Article Number: | 20200261 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rstb.2020.0261 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | |||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © 2021 The Authors | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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