Bean, C. and Jenkinson, N. (2001). The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of
England. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 41(4), 434-441.
Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K.F. (2008a). Uncertainty and disagreement in economic
prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Economic Journal,
forthcoming.
_____ (2008b). Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England Survey of
External Forecasters. National Institute Economic Review, No.203, 68-77.
Casillas-Olvera, G. and Bessler, D.A. (2006). Probability forecasting and central bank
accountability. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28, 223-234.
Croushore, D. (2006). Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data. In Handbook of
Economic Forecasting (G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger and A. Timmermann, eds), pp.961-
982. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Davies, A. (2006). A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived
from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts. International Journal of
Forecasting, 22, 373-393.
Davies, A. and Lahiri, K. (1995). A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using
three-dimensional panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 205-227.
Davies, A. and Lahiri, K. (1999). Re-examining the rational expectations hypothesis using
panel data on multi-period forecasts. In Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent
Variable Models (C. Hsiao, M.H. Pesaran, K. Lahiri and L.F. Lee, eds), pp.226-254.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Elliott, G., Komunjer, I. and Timmermann, A. (2005). Estimation and testing of forecast
rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies, 72, 1107-1125.
Engelberg, J., Manski, C.F. and Williams, J. (2008). Comparing the point predictions and
subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters. Journal of Business and
Economic Statistics, forthcoming.
Garratt, A., Lee, K.C., Mise, E. and Shields, K. (2007). Real time representations of the UK
output gap in the presence of model uncertainty. Unpublished paper, Birkbeck College
and University of Leicester.
Groen, J.J.J., Kapetanios, G. and Price, S. (2007). Real time evaluation of Inflation Report
and Greenbook forecasts for inflation and growth. Unpublished paper, Bank of
England. Presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, University of
Warwick, March 2008.
McNees, S.K. (1979). The forecasting record for the 1970s. New England Economic
Review, September/October 1979, 33-53.
Milburn, M.A. (1978). Sources of bias in the prediction of future events. Organizational
Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 17-26.
Mitchell, J., Smith, R.J., Weale, M.R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E.L. (2005) An indicator of
monthly GDP and an early estimate of quarterly GDP growth. Economic Journal, 115,
F108-F129.
Svensson, L.E.O. (1997). Inflation forecast targeting: implementing and monitoring inflation
targets. European Economic Review, 41, 1111-1146.
Forecast sources cited:
Bank of England Inflation Report (quarterly):
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/index.htm
Consensus Economics: http://www.consensusforecasts.com/
HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK Economy (monthly):
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/data_index.cfm
US Survey of Professional Forecasters: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/spf/index.cfm