Seasonality, cointegration, and forecasting UK residential energy demand
UNSPECIFIED (1999) Seasonality, cointegration, and forecasting UK residential energy demand. SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 46 (2). pp. 185-206. ISSN 0036-9292Full text not available from this repository.
Much of the short-run movement in energy demand in the UK is seasonal, and the contribution of long-run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed estimation procedure that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity. An econometric model is shown to provide superior short-run forecasts to well-known seasonal time series models ex post, but is inferior to Box-Jenkins SARMA models when the determinants themselves have to be forecast. However, the relatively short data sample and small number of forecasts suggest caution in generalising these results.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
|Journal or Publication Title:||SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY|
|Publisher:||BLACKWELL PUBL LTD|
|Number of Pages:||22|
|Page Range:||pp. 185-206|
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