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Seasonality, cointegration, and forecasting UK residential energy demand
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UNSPECIFIED (1999) Seasonality, cointegration, and forecasting UK residential energy demand. SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 46 (2). pp. 185-206. ISSN 0036-9292
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Much of the short-run movement in energy demand in the UK is seasonal, and the contribution of long-run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed estimation procedure that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity. An econometric model is shown to provide superior short-run forecasts to well-known seasonal time series models ex post, but is inferior to Box-Jenkins SARMA models when the determinants themselves have to be forecast. However, the relatively short data sample and small number of forecasts suggest caution in generalising these results.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions J Political Science > JA Political science (General) |
| Journal or Publication Title: | SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY |
| Publisher: | BLACKWELL PUBL LTD |
| ISSN: | 0036-9292 |
| Date: | May 1999 |
| Volume: | 46 |
| Number: | 2 |
| Number of Pages: | 22 |
| Page Range: | pp. 185-206 |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/14546 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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