UNSPECIFIED. (1999) Seasonality, cointegration, and forecasting UK residential energy demand. SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 46 (2). pp. 185-206. ISSN 0036-9292

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Abstract

Much of the short-run movement in energy demand in the UK is seasonal, and the contribution of long-run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed estimation procedure that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity. An econometric model is shown to provide superior short-run forecasts to well-known seasonal time series models ex post, but is inferior to Box-Jenkins SARMA models when the determinants themselves have to be forecast. However, the relatively short data sample and small number of forecasts suggest caution in generalising these results.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Journal or Publication Title:	SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
Publisher:	BLACKWELL PUBL LTD
ISSN:	0036-9292
Official Date:	May 1999
Dates:	Date Event May 1999 UNSPECIFIED
Volume:	46
Number:	2
Number of Pages:	22
Page Range:	pp. 185-206
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/14546

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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