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Multiple strategies in conjunction and disjunction judgments : most people are normative part of the time

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Tripp, James, Sanborn, Adam N., Stewart, Neil and Noguchi, Takao (2015) Multiple strategies in conjunction and disjunction judgments : most people are normative part of the time. In: CogSci 2015 : 37th annual conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Pasadena, California, 22-25 Jul 2015. Published in: Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX ISBN 9780991196722.

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Official URL: https://cogsci.mindmodeling.org/2015/papers/0649/i...

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Abstract

Do people use a single strategy or sample from multiple strategies when estimating the conjunction and disjunction of two independent events? Here we address this tension directly by comparing individual level Bayesian simulations of multi and single strategy models using data from a frequency estimation experiment. Participants were shown two statements describing attributes and asked to estimate how many people had either one attribute, conjunction, or disjunction of attributes. In our Bayesian simulations we compare models in which participants either adopt a single strategy or sample from a set of strategies when forming estimates of both conjunctions and disjunctions. We compared every permutation of models in which a participant is responding based on a single component, a weighted average of the two events, probability theory, or combination of strategies. Our findings show that people sample from multiple strategies and are sampling from the normative strategy some of the time.

Item Type: Conference Item (Paper)
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX
Publisher: Cognitive Science Society
ISBN: 9780991196722
Official Date: 2015
Dates:
DateEvent
2015Published
Article Number: 3002
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Date of first compliant deposit: 22 December 2020
Date of first compliant Open Access: 22 December 2020
Conference Paper Type: Paper
Title of Event: CogSci 2015 : 37th annual conference of the Cognitive Science Society
Type of Event: Conference
Location of Event: Pasadena, California
Date(s) of Event: 22-25 Jul 2015
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