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Geographic negative correlation of estimated incidence between first and second waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy

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Carletti, Margherita and Pancrazi, Roberto (2021) Geographic negative correlation of estimated incidence between first and second waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy. Mathematics, 9 (2). 133. doi:10.3390/math9020133

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9020133

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Abstract

In this short communication, we investigate whether the intensity of the second wave of infection from SARS-CoV-2 that hit Italy in October–November–December 2020 is related to the intensity of the first wave, which took place in March–April 2020. We exploit the variation of the wave intensities across the 107 Italian provinces. Since the first wave has affected not only different regions, but also different provinces of the same region, at a heterogenous degree, this comparison allows useful insights to be drawn about the characteristics of the virus. We estimate a strong negative correlation between the new daily infections among provinces during the first and second waves and show that this result is robust to different specifications. This empirical result can be of inspiration to biologists on the nature of collective immunity underlying COVID-19.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Italy, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Italy -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Mathematics
Publisher: MDPI
ISSN: 2227-7390
Official Date: 9 January 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
9 January 2021Published
5 January 2021Accepted
Volume: 9
Number: 2
Article Number: 133
DOI: 10.3390/math9020133
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDIstituto Nazionale di Alta Matematica "Francesco Severi"http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009112

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