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Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission : a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
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Möhlmann, Tim W. R., Keeling, Matthew James, Wennergren, Uno, Favia, Guido, Santman-Berends, Inge, Takken, Willem, Koenraadt, Constantianus J. M. and Brand, Samuel (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission : a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports, 11 (1). 1892. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9
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WRAP-Biting-midge-dynamics-bluetongue-climate-disease-outbreaks-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (3314Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9
Abstract
Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | |||||||||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Bluetongue virus, Bluetongue virus -- Transmission , Livestock -- Infections, Insects as carriers of disease | |||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Scientific Reports | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK | |||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 | |||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 21 January 2021 | |||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 25 January 2021 | |||||||||||||||
| Volume: | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 1892 | |||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9 | |||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | ** From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router ** History: received 27-07-2018; accepted 16-04-2020; registration 04-01-2021; online 21-01-2021; pub-electronic 21-01-2021; collection 12-2021. ** Licence for this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | |||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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