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Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission : a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

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Möhlmann, Tim W. R., Keeling, Matthew James, Wennergren, Uno, Favia, Guido, Santman-Berends, Inge, Takken, Willem, Koenraadt, Constantianus J. M. and Brand, Samuel (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission : a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports, 11 (1). 1892. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9

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Abstract

Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology
S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Bluetongue virus, Bluetongue virus -- Transmission , Livestock -- Infections, Insects as carriers of disease
Journal or Publication Title: Scientific Reports
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK
ISSN: 2045-2322
Official Date: 21 January 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
21 January 2021Published
16 April 2020Accepted
Volume: 11
Number: 1
Article Number: 1892
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): ** From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router ** History: received 27-07-2018; accepted 16-04-2020; registration 04-01-2021; online 21-01-2021; pub-electronic 21-01-2021; collection 12-2021. ** Licence for this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
1300018161Ministry of Economic Affairshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004725
EP/ S022244/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
BB/S01750X/1[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
2012T85B3RMinistero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricercahttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003407
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