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A hazard model of the probability of medical school dropout in the United Kingdom
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Arulampalam, Wiji, Naylor, Robin Andrew, 1959- and Smith, Jeremy (Jeremy P.) (2001) A hazard model of the probability of medical school dropout in the United Kingdom. Discussion Paper. Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Bonn.
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Abstract
From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Discussion Paper) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | L Education > LC Special aspects of education > LC5201 Education extension. Adult education. Continuing education H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics |
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | College dropouts -- Great Britain, Medical students -- Great Britain |
| Series Name: | Discussion paper (Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit) |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) |
| Publisher: | Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit |
| Place of Publication: | Bonn |
| ISSN: | 0964-1998 |
| Date: | July 2001 |
| Volume: | Vol.333 |
| Number of Pages: | 43 |
| Page Range: | pp. 157-178 |
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed |
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access |
| Description: | Version accepted by publisher (post-print, after peer review, before copy-editing). Publisher statement: the definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com. |
| Version or Related Resource: | Arulampalam, A., Naylor, R.A., Smith, J.P. (2003). A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 167(1), pp.157-178. YR: 2004 |
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| References: | Angel, C. and Johnson, A. (2000), “Broadening access to undergraduate medical education,” British Medical Journal, Volume 321, p. 1136-8. Booth, A. L. and Satchell, S. E. (1995), “The hazards of doing a PhD: an analysis of completion and withdrawal rates of British PhD students in the 1980s”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, (Statistics in Society), Volume 158, 2, p.297-318. Johnes, J. and Taylor, J. (1990), Performance indicators in higher education, SRHE/OUP, Oxford. Lancaster, T. (1990), The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data, Econometric Society Monograph, Cambridge University Press. McManus, I. C. (1996), “Drop-out rate in medical school seems reasonable,” (letter to the Editor) British Medical Journal, Volume 313, July, p. 173. McManus, I. C. (1998), “Factors affecting likelihood of applicants being offered a place in medical schools in the United Kingdom in 1996 and 1997: retrospective study,” British Medical Journal, Volume 317, p. 1111-1117. McManus, I. C., Richards P., and Winder, B. C. (1999), “Intercalated degrees, learning styles, and career preferences: prospective longitudinal study of UK medical students,” British Medical Journal, Volume 319, p. 542-6. Machin, S. and Oswald, A. (2000), “UK economics and the future supply of academic economists”, The Economic Journal, Volume 110, p. F334-F349. Mealli, F., Pudney, S. and Thomas, J. (1996), “Training duration and post-training outcomes: a duration-limited competing risks model”, The Economic Journal, Volume 106, p. 422-33. Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee. (1997), Planning the medical workforce: third report. London: Department of Health (a downloadable version of this report is available at http://www.doh.gov.uk/medical/mwsca3.htm). Moffitt, R. (1996), “Symposium on school quality and educational outcomes: introduction,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 78, p. 559-561. Narendranathan, W. and Stewart, M. B. (1993a), “How does the benefit effect vary as unemployment spells lengthen?”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 8, p.361- 81. Narendranathan, W. and Stewart, M. B. (1993b), “Modelling the probability of leaving unemployment: competing risks models with flexible base-line hazards”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, (Applied Statistics), Volume 42(1), p.63-83. Parkhouse, J. (1996), “Intake, output, and drop out in United Kingdom medical schools,” British Medical Journal, Volume 312, April, p. 885. Porter, O. (1990), Undergraduate completion and persistence in four-year colleges and universities, The National Institute of Independent Colleges and Universities, Washington, D.C. Smith, J. P., Naylor, R. A. and McKnight, A. A. (2000), “Graduate employment outcomes and university performance measures,” The Economic Journal, Volume 110, p. F382- F411. Smith, J. P. and Naylor, R. A. (2001a), “Determinants of Individual Degree Performance,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 63(1), p. 29-60. Smith, J. P. and Naylor, R. A. (2001b), “Dropping out of university: a statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, (Statistics in Society), Volume 164(2), p. 389-405. |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/149 |
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