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French, Simon (2021) From soft to hard elicitation. Journal of the Operational Research Society . doi:10.1080/01605682.2021.1907244 (In Press)
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WRAP-from-soft-hard-elicitation-French-2021.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1491Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1907244
Abstract
At the outset of an analysis, there is a need to interact with the problem-owners to understand their perspectives on the issues. This understanding leads to the construction of one or more models to reflect their views, their values and their uncertainties. Some models are qualitative; others, quantitative. Quantitative models need populating with numbers, either from data or from further judgements elicited from the problem-owners, their stakeholders or their experts. The model(s) may then be analysed to provide feedback to the problem-owners on the possible resolution of the problem. In practice, the process may iterate, cycling through more sophisticated models, which require further inputs from the problem-owners. This paper discusses the elicitation processes involved, arguing that the current literature has developed if not in silos, then in pockets of activity that do not reflect the more joined up processes that often take place in practice. Furthermore, it is suggested that potential psychological and behavioural biases that may occur in quantitative elicitation are reasonably well understood and guarded against, whereas less attention has been paid to similar biases that may affect more qualitative model building.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology T Technology > T Technology (General) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Elicitation, Operations research -- Psychological aspects, Decision making, Management science | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Operational Research Society | ||||||
| Publisher: | Taylor and Francis | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0160-5682 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 22 April 2021 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| DOI: | 10.1080/01605682.2021.1907244 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | ||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | “This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the Operational Research Society on 22/04/2021, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01605682.2021.1907244 | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
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