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Spatio-temporal dynamics of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection
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Davis, Christopher N. (2020) Spatio-temporal dynamics of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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WRAP_Theses_Davis_2020.pdf - Submitted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (25Mb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3492964~S15
Abstract
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. In this thesis, I develop a stochastic mathematical model for gHAT infection dynamics that can explore the infection on the level of individual villages. This allows us to make predictions on the same scale at which the active screening interventions occur. Since regional elimination is dependent on the local elimination of transmission in villages, we then scale up the model to consider the interaction of villages in relation to the infection.
The models show that infection is able to persist for long periods in relatively small isolated populations due to the long time scales of infection, and that not observing any cases is an indicator of local elimination, but not proof. Further analysis demonstrates that using a net monetary benefit framework, active screening has the most benefit when carried out at high coverage approximately annually. Modelling predictions also show that elimination is unlikely to be achieved in all areas with active screening at the current coverages alone.
These results provide quantitative support for some current intervention strategies, while the insights given also highlight some potential difficulties for achieving and measuring a 2030 elimination goal.
| Item Type: | Thesis or Dissertation (PhD) | ||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | African trypanosomiasis -- Mathematical models, Stochastic models | ||||
| Official Date: | 10 June 2020 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
| Theses Department: | Mathematics for Real-World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training | ||||
| Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
| Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Keeling, Matthew James ; Rock, Kat | ||||
| Format of File: | |||||
| Extent: | xiii, 178 leaves : colour illustrations, colour map | ||||
| Language: | eng |
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