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Valuation and estimation from experience

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Olschewski, Sebastian, Newell, Ben R., Oberholzer, Yvonne and Scheibehenne, Benjamin (2021) Valuation and estimation from experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 34 (5). pp. 729-741. doi:10.1002/bdm.2241 ISSN 1099-0771.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2241

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Abstract

The processing of sequentially presented numerical information is a prerequisite for decisions from experience, where people learn about potential outcomes and their associated probabilities and then make choices between gambles. Little is known, however, about how people's preference for choosing a gamble is affected by how they perceive and process numerical information. To address this, we conducted a series of experiments wherein participants repeatedly sampled numbers from continuous outcome distributions. They were incentivized either to estimate the means of the numbers or to state their minimum selling prices to forgo a consequential draw from the distributions (i.e., the certainty equivalents or valuations). We found that participants valued distributions below their means, valued high-variance sequences lower than low-variance sequences, and valued left-skewed sequences lower than right-skewed sequences. Though less pronounced, similar patterns occurred in the mean estimation task where preferences should not play a role. These results are not consistent with prior findings in decision from experience such as the overweighting of high numbers and the underweighting of rare events. Rather, the qualitative effects, as well as the similarity of effects in valuation and estimation, are consistent with the assumption that people process numbers on a compressed mental number line in valuations from experience.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Decision making , Decision making -- Psychological aspects -- Mathematical models, Risk , Valuation
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Publisher: Wiley
ISSN: 1099-0771
Official Date: December 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
December 2021Published
1 March 2021Available
12 February 2021Accepted
Volume: 34
Number: 5
Page Range: pp. 729-741
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2241
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 22 June 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 23 June 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
P2BSP1_188188[SNSF] Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001711
100014_149846[SNSF] Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001711
100014_175849[SNSF] Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001711

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