Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology
UNSPECIFIED. (1998) Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology. JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, 5 (Suppl. 2). pp. 25-30. ISSN 1352-0504Full text not available from this repository.
We present a deterministic model of the possible emergence of a vaccine escape variant of hepatitis B virus (HBV). The model identifies the key unknowns determining this process: the protection afforded by she current vaccines against particular HBV variants; the infectiousness of these variants; and the current prevalence of individuals infectious with the variants (each factor relative to wild-type). By malting pessimistic assumptions about these unknowns we show that even a highly infectious variant, under a vaccine programme that affords no protection against the variant, would still take decades to emerge. Thus the current low prevalence of variants is not evidence for the cross-reactivity of the current vaccines or for a lack of infectiousness in the variants. As any vaccine failure will be inapparent for decades it may be sensible to recommend vaccine modifications now rather than later.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
|Journal or Publication Title:||JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS|
|Publisher:||BLACKWELL SCIENCE LTD|
|Number of Pages:||6|
|Page Range:||pp. 25-30|
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