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Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology

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UNSPECIFIED (1998) Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology. JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, 5 (Suppl. 2). pp. 25-30.

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Abstract

We present a deterministic model of the possible emergence of a vaccine escape variant of hepatitis B virus (HBV). The model identifies the key unknowns determining this process: the protection afforded by she current vaccines against particular HBV variants; the infectiousness of these variants; and the current prevalence of individuals infectious with the variants (each factor relative to wild-type). By malting pessimistic assumptions about these unknowns we show that even a highly infectious variant, under a vaccine programme that affords no protection against the variant, would still take decades to emerge. Thus the current low prevalence of variants is not evidence for the cross-reactivity of the current vaccines or for a lack of infectiousness in the variants. As any vaccine failure will be inapparent for decades it may be sensible to recommend vaccine modifications now rather than later.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
Journal or Publication Title: JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS
Publisher: BLACKWELL SCIENCE LTD
ISSN: 1352-0504
Official Date: November 1998
Dates:
DateEvent
November 1998UNSPECIFIED
Volume: 5
Number: Suppl. 2
Number of Pages: 6
Page Range: pp. 25-30
Publication Status: Published

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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