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Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology
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UNSPECIFIED (1998) Current status of HBV vaccine escape variants - a mathematical model of their epidemiology. JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, 5 (Suppl. 2). pp. 25-30.
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Abstract
We present a deterministic model of the possible emergence of a vaccine escape variant of hepatitis B virus (HBV). The model identifies the key unknowns determining this process: the protection afforded by she current vaccines against particular HBV variants; the infectiousness of these variants; and the current prevalence of individuals infectious with the variants (each factor relative to wild-type). By malting pessimistic assumptions about these unknowns we show that even a highly infectious variant, under a vaccine programme that affords no protection against the variant, would still take decades to emerge. Thus the current low prevalence of variants is not evidence for the cross-reactivity of the current vaccines or for a lack of infectiousness in the variants. As any vaccine failure will be inapparent for decades it may be sensible to recommend vaccine modifications now rather than later.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RC Internal medicine Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology |
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| Journal or Publication Title: | JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS | ||||
| Publisher: | BLACKWELL SCIENCE LTD | ||||
| ISSN: | 1352-0504 | ||||
| Official Date: | November 1998 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 5 | ||||
| Number: | Suppl. 2 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 6 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 25-30 | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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