Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Davis, Christopher N., Castano, Maria Soledad, Aliee, Maryam, Patel, Swati, Miaka, Erick Mwamba, Keeling, Matthew James, Spencer, Simon E. F., Chitnis, Nakul and Rock, Kat S. (2021) Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data. Clinical Infectious Diseases . ciab190. doi:10.1093/cid/ciab190

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP-Modelling-quantify-elimination-transmission-routine-gambiense-human-African-trypanosomiasis-2021.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

Download (710Kb) | Preview
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab190

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

Background The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s.

Methods We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT.

Results In three example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000–2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017–18 and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (Model S); and to 87.3% and 92.1% (Model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however if zero cases were found in 2021 it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for Model S and 88.5% for Model W), and this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for Model S and 94.0% for Model W).

Conclusions We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modelling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): African trypanosomiasis -- Mathematical models, African trypanosomiasis -- Epidemiology, African trypanosomiasis -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Prevention, Population Surveillance -- Methods
Journal or Publication Title: Clinical Infectious Diseases
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISSN: 1058-4838
Official Date: 27 April 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
27 April 2021Published
24 February 2021Accepted
30 November 2020Submitted
Article Number: ciab190
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab190
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Publisher Statement: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases following peer review. The version of record Christopher N Davis, Maria Soledad Castaño, Maryam Aliee, Swati Patel, Erick Mwamba Miaka, Matt J Keeling, Simon E F Spencer, Nakul Chitnis, Kat S Rock, Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021;, ciab190 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab190
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
OPP1184344Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
OPP1177824Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
Related URLs:
  • Publisher

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us