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Elementary effects analysis of factors controlling COVID-19 infections in computational simulation reveals the importance of social distancing and mask usage
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Li, Kelvin K. F., Jarvis, Stephen A. and Minhas, Fayyaz ul Amir Afsar (2021) Elementary effects analysis of factors controlling COVID-19 infections in computational simulation reveals the importance of social distancing and mask usage. Computers in Biology and Medicine, 134 (1). 104369. doi:10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104369 ISSN 0010-4825.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104369
Abstract
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection rates and how these factors relate to behavioural and societal parameters is crucial for developing control strategies. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of masks, social distancing, lockdown and self-isolation for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Our findings from an agent-based simulation modelling showed that whilst requiring a lockdown is widely believed to be the most efficient method to quickly reduce infection numbers, the practice of social distancing and the usage of surgical masks can potentially be more effective than requiring a lockdown. Our multivariate analysis of simulation results using the Morris Elementary Effects Method suggests that if a sufficient proportion of the population uses surgical masks and follows social distancing regulations, then SARS-CoV-2 infections can be controlled without requiring a lockdown.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Computer Science | ||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Computers in Biology and Medicine | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0010-4825 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | April 2021 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 134 | ||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 104369 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104369 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. | ||||||||
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