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High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing
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Hart, William Stephen, Maini, Philip K. and Thompson, Robin N. (2021) High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing. eLife, 10 . e65534. doi:10.7554/eLife.65534
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.65534
Abstract
Background: Understanding changes in infectiousness during SARS-COV-2 infections is critical to assess the effectiveness of public health measures such as contact tracing.
Methods: Here, we develop a novel mechanistic approach to infer the infectiousness profile of SARS-COV-2 infected individuals using data from known infector-infectee pairs. We compare estimates of key epidemiological quantities generated using our mechanistic method with analogous estimates generated using previous approaches.
Results: The mechanistic method provides an improved fit to data from SARS-CoV-2 infector-infectee pairs compared to commonly used approaches. Our best-fitting model indicates a high proportion of presymptomatic transmissions, with many transmissions occurring shortly before the infector develops symptoms.
Conclusions: High infectiousness immediately prior to symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing until effective vaccines have been distributed widely, even if contacts from a short time window before symptom onset alone are traced.
Funding: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Mathematics | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Statistical methods , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Forecasting -- Statistical methods , Contact tracing (Epidemiology) -- Statistical methods | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | eLife | ||||||
| Publisher: | eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. | ||||||
| ISSN: | 2050-084X | ||||||
| Official Date: | 26 April 2021 | ||||||
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| Volume: | 10 | ||||||
| Article Number: | e65534 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.7554/eLife.65534 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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