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A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales : early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality

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Danon, Leon, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Bailey, Mick and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales : early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200272. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0272

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0272

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Abstract

An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease) -- Great Britain, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Government policy -- Great Britain, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 0962-8436
Official Date: 19 July 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
19 July 2021Published
31 May 2021Available
17 April 2021Accepted
Volume: 376
Number: 1829
Article Number: 20200272
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0272
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
MC_PC_19067[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
MR/V038613/1Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological ResearchUNSPECIFIED
EP/V051555/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
EP/N510129/1Alan Turing Institutehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012338
UNSPECIFIEDNational Institute for Health Research Health in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of BristolUNSPECIFIED

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