The Library
A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales : early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
Tools
Tools
Tools
Danon, Leon, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Bailey, Mick and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales : early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200272. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0272
|
PDF
WRAP-spatial-model-COVID-19-transmission-England-and-Wales-Keeling-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1511Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0272
Abstract
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | ||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) -- Great Britain, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Government policy -- Great Britain, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology | ||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0962-8436 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 19 July 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
|
||||||||||||||||||
| Volume: | 376 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1829 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 20200272 | ||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rstb.2020.0272 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
