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The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

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Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Read, Jonathan M., House, Thomas A., Medley, Graham F., Keeling, Matt J. and Danon, Leon (2021) The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200273. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0273 ISSN 0962-8436.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0273

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Abstract

Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- , COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, Social participation , Social participation -- Prevention -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 0962-8436
Official Date: 19 July 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
19 July 2021Published
31 May 2021Available
17 April 2021Accepted
Volume: 376
Number: 1829
Article Number: 20200273
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 5 July 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 7 July 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDNational Institute for Health Researchhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272
MR/V038613/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
MC/PC/19067[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
EP/V051555/1 [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
EP/N510129/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
EP/N014499/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
MR/ S004793/1 [MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
MR/V028456/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265

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