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The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies
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Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Read, Jonathan M., House, Thomas A., Medley, Graham F., Keeling, Matt J. and Danon, Leon (2021) The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200273. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0273 ISSN 0962-8436.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0273
Abstract
Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- , COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, Social participation , Social participation -- Prevention -- Mathematical models | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0962-8436 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 19 July 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Volume: | 376 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1829 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 20200273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rstb.2020.0273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 5 July 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 7 July 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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