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Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making

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Nichols, James D., Bogich, Tiffany L., Howerton, Emily, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Borchering, Rebecca K., Ferrari, Matthew, Haran, Murali, Jewell, Christopher, Pepin, Kim M., Probert, William J. M., Pulliam, Juliet R. C., Runge, Michael C., Tildesley, Michael J., Viboud, Cécile and Shea, Katriona (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making. PLoS Biology, 19 (6). e3001307. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307 ISSN 1545-7885.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307

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Abstract

More than 1.6 million Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests were administered daily in the United States at the peak of the epidemic, with a significant focus on individual treatment. Here, we show that objective-driven, strategic sampling designs and analyses can maximize information gain at the population level, which is necessary to increase situational awareness and predict, prepare for, and respond to a pandemic, while also continuing to inform individual treatment. By focusing on specific objectives such as individual treatment or disease prediction and control (e.g., via the collection of population-level statistics to inform lockdown measures or vaccine rollout) and drawing from the literature on capture–recapture methods to deal with nonrandom sampling and testing errors, we illustrate how public health objectives can be achieved even with limited test availability when testing programs are designed a priori to meet those objectives.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention, Vaccines -- Development, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS Biology
Publisher: Public Library of Science
ISSN: 1545-7885
Official Date: 17 June 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
17 June 2021Published
1 June 2021Accepted
Volume: 19
Number: 6
Article Number: e3001307
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001307
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 5 July 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 7 July 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
1911962National Science Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008982
BB/T004312[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
2028301National Science Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008982
2037885National Science Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008982
UNSPECIFIEDHuck Institutes of the Life Scienceshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011568
UNSPECIFIEDNational Institutes of Healthhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002
UNSPECIFIEDUnited States. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Servicehttp://viaf.org/viaf/147736763
UNSPECIFIEDU.S. Geological Surveyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000203
UNSPECIFIEDLi Ka Shing Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007421
UNSPECIFIEDDepartment of Science and Innovation, South AfricaUNSPECIFIED
UNSPECIFIEDNational Research Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001321
Is Part Of: 1

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