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SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students : lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

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Enright, Jessica, Hill, Edward M., Stage, Helena B., Bolton, Kirsty J., Nixon, Emily J., Fairbanks, Emma L., Tang, Maria L., Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Dyson, Louise, Budd, Chris J., Hoyle, Rebecca B., Schewe, Lars, Gog, Julia R. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students : lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science , 8 (8). 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310 ISSN 2054-5703.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310

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Abstract

In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: L Education > LB Theory and practice of education > LB2300 Higher Education
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Great Britain -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Universities and colleges -- Great Britain -- Sanitary affairs -- Mathematical models, Infection -- Prevention-- Great Britain -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention -- Great Britain -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Royal Society Open Science
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 2054-5703
Official Date: 4 August 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
4 August 2021Published
16 July 2021Accepted
Volume: 8
Number: 8
Article Number: 210310
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210310
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 4 August 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 5 August 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
EP/R014604/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
Anne McLaren FellowshipUniversity Of Nottinghamhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000837
UNSPECIFIED[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
EP/N509620/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
MR/V038613/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
MR/V009761/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
202562/ Z/16/ZWellcome Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269
202562/ Z/16/ZRoyal Societyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288
EP/T004878/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266

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