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Eliciting probabilistic judgements for integrating decision support systems
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Barons, Martine J., Wright, Sophia K. and Smith , Jim Q. (2018) Eliciting probabilistic judgements for integrating decision support systems. In: Dias, Luis C. and Morton, Alec and Quigley, John , (eds.) Elicitation The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science , 261 . Cham: Springer, pp. 445-478. ISBN 9783319650517
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_17
Abstract
When facing extremely large and interconnected systems, decision- makers must often combine evidence obtained from multiple expert domains, each informed by a distinct panel of experts. To guide this combination so that it takes place in a coherent manner, we need an integrating decision support system (IDSS). This enables the user to calculate the subjective expected utility scores of candidate policies as well as providing a framework for incorporating measures of uncertainty into the system. Throughout this chapter we justify and describe the use of IDSS models and how this procedure is being implemented to inform decision-making for policies impacting food poverty within the UK. In particular, we provide specific details of this elicitation process when the overarching framework of the IDSS is a
dynamic Bayesian network (DBN).
| Item Type: | Book Item | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics | ||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics | ||||||
| Series Name: | International Series in Operations Research & Management Science | ||||||
| Publisher: | Springer | ||||||
| Place of Publication: | Cham | ||||||
| ISBN: | 9783319650517 | ||||||
| Book Title: | Elicitation The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement | ||||||
| Editor: | Dias, Luis C. and Morton, Alec and Quigley, John | ||||||
| Official Date: | 2018 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 261 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 445-478 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_17 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published |
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