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Eliciting probabilistic judgements for integrating decision support systems

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Barons, Martine J., Wright, Sophia K. and Smith , Jim Q. (2018) Eliciting probabilistic judgements for integrating decision support systems. In: Dias, Luis C. and Morton, Alec and Quigley, John , (eds.) Elicitation The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science , 261 . Cham: Springer, pp. 445-478. ISBN 9783319650517

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_17

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Abstract

When facing extremely large and interconnected systems, decision- makers must often combine evidence obtained from multiple expert domains, each informed by a distinct panel of experts. To guide this combination so that it takes place in a coherent manner, we need an integrating decision support system (IDSS). This enables the user to calculate the subjective expected utility scores of candidate policies as well as providing a framework for incorporating measures of uncertainty into the system. Throughout this chapter we justify and describe the use of IDSS models and how this procedure is being implemented to inform decision-making for policies impacting food poverty within the UK. In particular, we provide specific details of this elicitation process when the overarching framework of the IDSS is a
dynamic Bayesian network (DBN).

Item Type: Book Item
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Statistics
Series Name: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
Publisher: Springer
Place of Publication: Cham
ISBN: 9783319650517
Book Title: Elicitation The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement
Editor: Dias, Luis C. and Morton, Alec and Quigley, John
Official Date: 2018
Dates:
DateEvent
2018Published
18 November 2017Available
Volume: 261
Page Range: pp. 445-478
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_17
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published

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