Smith, James Q., Barons, Martine J. and Leonelli, Manuele (2015) Decision focused inference on networked probabilistic systems : with applications to food security. In: 2015 Joint Statistical Meetings, Seattle, USA, 08-13 Aug 2015. Published in: JSM Proceedings 2015

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Abstract

Bayesian technologies have been progressively applied to larger and larger domains. Here necessarily probability judgments are made collaboratively and it is rare that one agent owns all probability judgments in the system. So interesting new foundational
and methodological issues have arisen associated with the status of inference support by combinations of such judgments. In this paper we review some recent work on Bayesian inference underlying integrated decision support for huge processes. We argue that in a
surprising number of such dynamic environments it is in fact formally justified to distribute the inference between different panels of experts and then use an agreed framework to knit these separate judgments to properly score different policies. We also briefly report recent progress in applying this new technology to develop an integrating decision support system for local government officials to use when trying to evaluate implications on food poverty of shocks in the food supply chain if various ameliorating policies are applied.

Item Type:	Conference Item (Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Food security -- Mathematical models, Food supply -- Mathematical models, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Probabilities
Journal or Publication Title:	JSM Proceedings 2015
Publisher:	American Statistical Association
Official Date:	8 August 2015
Dates:	Date Event 8 August 2015 Completion
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit:	6 August 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access:	6 August 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID EP/K039628/1 [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266 EP/K007580/1 [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266 Food Global Priority Programme University of Warwick http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000741
Conference Paper Type:	Paper
Title of Event:	2015 Joint Statistical Meetings
Type of Event:	Conference
Location of Event:	Seattle, USA
Date(s) of Event:	08-13 Aug 2015

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