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Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages of the Democratic Republic of Congo using Kolmogorov forward equations

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Davis, Christopher N., Keeling, Matthew James and Rock, Kat S. (2021) Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages of the Democratic Republic of Congo using Kolmogorov forward equations. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 18 (183). 20210419. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0419

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0419

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Abstract

Stochastic methods for modelling disease dynamics enables the direct computation of the probability of elimination of transmission (EOT). For the low-prevalence disease of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), we develop a new mechanistic model for gHAT infection that determines the full probability distribution of the gHAT infection using Kolmogorov forward equations. The methodology allows the analytical investigation of the probabilities of gHAT elimination in the spatially-connected villages of different prevalence health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and captures the uncertainty using exact methods. Our method provides a more realistic approach to scaling the probability of elimination of infection between single villages and much larger regions, and provides results comparable to established models without the requirement of detailed infection structure. The novel flexibility allows the interventions in the model to be implemented specific to each village, and this introduces the framework to consider the possible future strategies of test-and-treat or direct treatment of individuals living in villages where cases have been found, using a new drug.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): African trypanosomiasis -- Congo (Democratic Republic) -- Mathematical models, African trypanosomiasis -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 1742-5689
Official Date: 6 October 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
6 October 2021Published
9 September 2021Accepted
Volume: 18
Number: 183
Article Number: 20210419
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0419
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Copyright Holders: © 2021 The Authors.
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
OPP1184344Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
OPP1177824Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
UNSPECIFIEDEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
UNSPECIFIEDMedical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
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