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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics
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Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Moore, Sam, Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Tildesley, Michael J., Lythgoe, Katrina A., House, Thomas, Pellis, Lorenzo and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12 . 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 ISSN 2041-1723.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7
Abstract
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccinederived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the e ect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we nd epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology, Coronavirus infections -- Immunological aspects, Coronaviruses, Viruses -- Variation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 30 September 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 5730 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 September 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 1 October 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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