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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

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Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Moore, Sam, Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Tildesley, Michael J., Lythgoe, Katrina A., House, Thomas, Pellis, Lorenzo and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12 . 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

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Abstract

Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccinederived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the e ect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we nd epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology, Coronavirus infections -- Immunological aspects, Coronaviruses, Viruses -- Variation
Journal or Publication Title: Nature Communications
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
ISSN: 2041-1723
Official Date: 30 September 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
30 September 2021Published
8 September 2021Accepted
Volume: 12
Article Number: 5730
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
MR/V009761/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
EP/S022244/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
202562/Z/16/ZWellcome Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269
INF/R2/180067[RS] Royal Societyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288
EP/V027468/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
MR/V028618/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
MR/V038613/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
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