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Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape
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Tennant, Warren, Cardinale, Eric, Cêtre-Sossah, Catherine, Moutroifi, Youssouf, Le Godais, Gilles, Colombi, Davide, Spencer, Simon E. F., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J., Charafouddine, Onzade, Colizza, Vittoria, Edmunds, W. John and Métras, Raphaëlle (2021) Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature Communications, 12 (1). 5593. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8
Abstract
The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004–2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004–2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | ||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
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| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Rift Valley fever -- Epidemiology, Livestock -- Diseases -- Mathematical models, Veterinary medicine -- Diagnosis | ||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK | ||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 22 September 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 5593 | ||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher Statement: | ** From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router ** History: received 25-02-2021; accepted 02-09-2021; registration 06-09-2021; pub-electronic 22-09-2021; online 22-09-2021; collection 12-2021. ** Licence for this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | ||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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