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Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape

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Tennant, Warren, Cardinale, Eric, Cêtre-Sossah, Catherine, Moutroifi, Youssouf, Le Godais, Gilles, Colombi, Davide, Spencer, Simon E. F., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J., Charafouddine, Onzade, Colizza, Vittoria, Edmunds, W. John and Métras, Raphaëlle (2021) Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature Communications, 12 (1). 5593. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8 ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8

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Abstract

The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004–2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004–2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Rift Valley fever -- Epidemiology, Livestock -- Diseases -- Mathematical models, Veterinary medicine -- Diagnosis
Journal or Publication Title: Nature Communications
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK
ISSN: 2041-1723
Official Date: 22 September 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
22 September 2021Published
2 September 2021Accepted
Volume: 12
Number: 1
Article Number: 5593
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25833-8
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): ** From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router ** History: received 25-02-2021; accepted 02-09-2021; registration 06-09-2021; pub-electronic 22-09-2021; online 22-09-2021; collection 12-2021. ** Licence for this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 11 October 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 13 October 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
PR-OD-1017-20007Department of Health and Social CareUNSPECIFIED
MR/P026400/1 [MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
EP/R018561/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
BB/T004312/1[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
EP/S022244/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
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