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Adaptive enrichment designs with a continuous biomarker

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Stallard, Nigel (2022) Adaptive enrichment designs with a continuous biomarker. Biometrics . doi:10.1111/biom.13644 (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13644

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Abstract

A popular design for clinical trials assessing targeted therapies is the two-stage adaptive enrichment design with recruitment in stage two limited to a biomarker-defined subgroup chosen based on data from stage one. The data-dependent selection leads to statistical challenges if data from both stages are used to draw inference on treatment effects in the selected subgroup.

If subgroups considered are nested, as when defined by a continuous biomarker, treatment effect estimates in different subgroups follow the same distribution as estimates in a group-sequential trial. This result is used to obtain tests controlling the familywise type I error rate (FWER) for six simple subgroup selection rules, one of which also controls the FWER for any selection rule. Two approaches are proposed; one based on multivariate normal distributions suitable if the number of possible subgroups, k, is small, and one based on Brownian motion approximations suitable for large k. The methods, applicable in the wide range of settings with asymptotically normal test statistics, are illustrated using survival data from a breast cancer trial.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School
Journal or Publication Title: Biometrics
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ISSN: 0006-341X
Official Date: 17 February 2022
Dates:
DateEvent
17 February 2022Available
23 September 2021Accepted
DOI: 10.1111/biom.13644
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: In Press
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Stallard, N. (2022), Adaptive enrichment designs with a continuous biomarker. Biometrics., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13644. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
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