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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

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Sharma, Mrinank, Mindermann, Sören, Rogers-Smith, Charlie, Leech, Gavin, Snodin, Benedict, Ahuja, Janvi, Sandbrink, Jonas B., Monrad, Joshua Teperowski, Altman, George, Dhaliwal, Gurpreet et al.
(2021) Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. Nature Communications, 12 (1). 5820. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4 ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4

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Abstract

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe’s second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours—such as distancing—which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe’s third wave.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Europe, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Social aspects -- Europe, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Political aspects -- Europe, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention -- Europe, Social distancing (Public health), Public health administration -- Europe, Public health -- Government policy
Journal or Publication Title: Nature Communications
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK
ISSN: 2041-1723
Official Date: 5 October 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
5 October 2021Published
23 August 2021Accepted
Volume: 12
Number: 1
Article Number: 5820
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 20 October 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 20 October 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
EP/S024050/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
UNSPECIFIEDUniversity of Oxfordhttp://viaf.org/viaf/142129514
UNSPECIFIEDDeepMindhttps://deepmind.com/
UNSPECIFIEDOpen Philanthropy Projecthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014895
BB/T008784/1[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
UNSPECIFIEDAugustinus Fondenhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004954
UNSPECIFIEDKnud Højgaards Fondhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009938
UNSPECIFIEDWilliam Demant Fondenhttps://www.williamdemantfonden.dk/
UNSPECIFIEDKai Lange og Gunhild Kai Langes Fondhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008206
UNSPECIFIEDAage og Johanne Louis-Hansens Fondhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010344
EP/S022937/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
UNSPECIFIEDBoehringer Ingelheim Fondshttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001645
MR/ R015600/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
EDCTP2 programme [ERC] Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
EDCTP2 programme [MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
UNSPECIFIEDAbdul Latif Jameel Community Initiativeshttp://viaf.org/viaf/6159335304612961457
EP/V002910/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
COVID-19 Research FundImperial College Londonhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000761
EP/S024050/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
UNSPECIFIEDCancer Research UKhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000289
MR/V038109/1UK Research and Innovationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014013
SBF004/1080The Academy of Medical Scienceshttps://acmedsci.ac.uk/grants-and-schemes/grant-schemes/springboard
MR/R015600/1[MRC] Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
OPP1197730Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
RDA02Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000762
NNF20OC0059309Novo Nordiskhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004191
UNSPECIFIEDNational Institute for Health Researchhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272
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