Forecasting economic processes
UNSPECIFIED (1998) Forecasting economic processes. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 14 (1). pp. 111-131. ISSN 0169-2070Full text not available from this repository.
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide to ex-ante forecast performance. We expound a number of models, methods, and procedures that illustrate the impacts of structural breaks on forecast accuracy, and evaluate ways of improving forecast performance. We argue that a theory of economic forecasting which allows for model mis-specification and structural breaks is feasible, and may provide a useful basis for interpreting and circumventing systematic forecast failure in macroeconomics. The empirical time series of consumers' expenditure, and Monte Carlo simulations, illustrate the analysis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
|Journal or Publication Title:||INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV|
|Number of Pages:||21|
|Page Range:||pp. 111-131|
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