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UNSPECIFIED (1998) Forecasting economic processes. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 14 (1). pp. 111-131. ISSN 0169-2070
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide to ex-ante forecast performance. We expound a number of models, methods, and procedures that illustrate the impacts of structural breaks on forecast accuracy, and evaluate ways of improving forecast performance. We argue that a theory of economic forecasting which allows for model mis-specification and structural breaks is feasible, and may provide a useful basis for interpreting and circumventing systematic forecast failure in macroeconomics. The empirical time series of consumers' expenditure, and Monte Carlo simulations, illustrate the analysis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
| Journal or Publication Title: | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING |
| Publisher: | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
| ISSN: | 0169-2070 |
| Date: | March 1998 |
| Volume: | 14 |
| Number: | 1 |
| Number of Pages: | 21 |
| Page Range: | pp. 111-131 |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/15890 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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