Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Modelling frontier mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Hilton, Jason, Dodd, Erengul, Forster, Jonathan J. and Smith, Peter W. F. (2021) Modelling frontier mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models. Journal of Official Statistics, 37 (3). pp. 569-589. doi:10.2478/jos-2021-0026 ISSN 2001-7367.

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP-Modelling-frontier-mortality-using-Bayesian-generalised-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (1309Kb) | Preview
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0026

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

Mortality rates differ across countries and years, and the country with the lowest observed mortality has changed over time. However, the classic Science paper by Oeppen and Vaupel(2002)identified a persistent linear trend over time in maximum national life expectancy. Inthis article, we look to exploit similar regularities in age-specific mortality by considering for any given year a hypothetical mortality ‘frontier’, which we define as the lower limit of the force of mortality at each age across all countries. Change in this frontier reflects incremental advances across the wide range of social, institutional and scientific dimensions that influence mortality. We jointly estimate frontier mortality as well as mortality rates for individual countries. Generalised additive models are used to estimate a smooth set of baseline frontier mortality rates and mortality improvements, and country-level mortality is modelled as a set of smooth, positive deviations from this, forcing the mortality estimates for individual countries to lie above the frontier. This model is fitted to data for a selection of countries from the Human Mortality Database (2019). The efficacy of the model in forecasting over a ten-year horizon is compared to a similar model fitted to each country separately.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Bayesian statistical decision theory, Mortality -- Statistics, Demography, Population forecasting
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Official Statistics
Publisher: Sciendo
ISSN: 2001-7367
Official Date: 13 September 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
13 September 2021Published
1 November 2021Accepted
Volume: 37
Number: 3
Page Range: pp. 569-589
DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0026
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Copyright Holders: © 2021 Jason Hilton et al., published by Sciendo
Date of first compliant deposit: 28 October 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 28 October 2021

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us