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On a kinetic opinion formation model for pre-election polling
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Düring, Bertram and Wright, Oliver (2022) On a kinetic opinion formation model for pre-election polling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380 (2224). doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0154 ISSN 1364-503X.
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WRAP-On-a-kinetic-opinion-formation-model-pre-election-polling-2021.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (555Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0154
Abstract
Motivated by recent successes in model-based pre-election polling, we propose a kinetic model for opinion formation which includes voter demographics and socio-economic factors like age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income and other measurable factors like behaviour in previous elections or referenda as a key driver in the opinion formation dynamics. The model is based on Toscani's kinetic opinion formation model and the leader-follower model of Düring et al., and leads to a system of coupled Boltzmann-type equations and associated, approximate Fokker-Planck-type systems. Numerical examples using data from general elections in the United Kingdom show the effect different demographics have on the opinion formation process and the outcome of elections.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology J Political Science > JF Political institutions (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Exit polling (Elections), Exit polling (Elections) -- Great Britain -- Mathematical models, Election forecasting , Election forecasting -- Great Britain -- Mathematical models, Public opinion polls, Public opinion polls -- Great Britain -- Mathematical models, Transport theory, Fokker-Planck equation | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | ||||||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1364-503X | ||||||||
Official Date: | May 2022 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 380 | ||||||||
Number: | 2224 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2021.0154 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 24 November 2021 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 November 2021 | ||||||||
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Open Access Version: |
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