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A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease in endemic regions
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Guyver‐Fletcher, Glen, Gorsich, Erin E. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease in endemic regions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases . doi:10.1111/tbed.14423 ISSN 1865-1674.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14423
Abstract
Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier‐mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment‐mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Developing countries , Communicable diseases in animals | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Transboundary and Emerging Diseases | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 1865-1674 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 22 December 2021 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| DOI: | 10.1111/tbed.14423 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © 2021 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 11 January 2022 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 11 January 2022 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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