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Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality

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Singer, B., Thompson, Robin N. and Bonsall, M. (2022) Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 19 (187). 20210709. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0709 (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0709

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Abstract

When vaccinating a large population in response to an invading pathogen, it is often necessary to prioritize some individuals to be vaccinated first. One way to do this is to choose individuals to vaccinate based on their location. Methods for this prioritization include strategies that target those regions most at risk of importing the pathogen, and strategies that target regions with high centrality on the travel network. We use a simple infectious disease epidemic model to compare a risk-targeting strategy to two different centrality-targeting strategies based on betweenness centrality and random walk percolation centrality, respectively. We find that the relative effectiveness of these strategies in reducing the total number of infections varies with the basic reproduction number of the pathogen, travel rates, structure of the travel network and vaccine availability. We conclude that when a pathogen has high spreading capacity, or when vaccine availability is limited, centrality-targeting strategies should be considered as an alternative to the more commonly used risk-targeting strategies.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Vaccines, Vaccines -- Mathematical models, Epidemiology -- Research -- Methodology, Epidemiology -- Statistical methods, Communicable diseases -- Vaccination -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Publisher: Royal Society
ISSN: 1742-5662
Official Date: February 2022
Dates:
DateEvent
February 2022Published
16 February 2022Available
20 January 2022Accepted
Volume: 19
Number: 187
Article Number: 20210709
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0709
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: In Press
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
BB/M011224/1[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
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