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Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality
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Singer, B., Thompson, Robin N. and Bonsall, M. (2022) Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 19 (187). 20210709. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0709 (In Press)
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0709
Abstract
When vaccinating a large population in response to an invading pathogen, it is often necessary to prioritize some individuals to be vaccinated first. One way to do this is to choose individuals to vaccinate based on their location. Methods for this prioritization include strategies that target those regions most at risk of importing the pathogen, and strategies that target regions with high centrality on the travel network. We use a simple infectious disease epidemic model to compare a risk-targeting strategy to two different centrality-targeting strategies based on betweenness centrality and random walk percolation centrality, respectively. We find that the relative effectiveness of these strategies in reducing the total number of infections varies with the basic reproduction number of the pathogen, travel rates, structure of the travel network and vaccine availability. We conclude that when a pathogen has high spreading capacity, or when vaccine availability is limited, centrality-targeting strategies should be considered as an alternative to the more commonly used risk-targeting strategies.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Vaccines, Vaccines -- Mathematical models, Epidemiology -- Research -- Methodology, Epidemiology -- Statistical methods, Communicable diseases -- Vaccination -- Mathematical models | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Society, Interface | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Royal Society | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1742-5662 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | February 2022 | ||||||||
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| Volume: | 19 | ||||||||
| Number: | 187 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 20210709 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2021.0709 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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