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Re‐parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search

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Fairbanks, Emma L., Brennan, Marnie L., Mertens, Peter P. C., Tildesley, Michael J. and Daly, Janet M. (2022) Re‐parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 69 (4). pp. 671-681. doi:10.1111/tbed.14420 ISSN 1865-1674.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14420

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Abstract

African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Culicoides spp., endemic to sub-Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and recent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better inform a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that died/were euthanized or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous estimations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, decrease in the duration of the outbreak and greater prevalence in vectors.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
SWORD Depositor: Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): African horse sickness virus, African horse sickness virus -- Mathematical models, Insects as carriers of disease, African horse sickness -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Publisher: Wiley
ISSN: 1865-1674
Official Date: July 2022
Dates:
DateEvent
July 2022Published
18 December 2021Available
29 September 2021Accepted
Volume: 69
Number: 4
Page Range: pp. 671-681
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14420
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 1 February 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access: 1 February 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
1944283[BBSRC] Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
727293Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
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