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Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling: an empirical analysis

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Marchesi, Silvia (1999) Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling: an empirical analysis. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. (Warwick economic research papers.

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Abstract

The existence of an empirical relationship between the adoption of an IMF programme and the concession of a debt rescheduling by commercial and official creditors is tested using a bivariate probit model. If countries who have arrangements with the IMF are more likely than others to obtain a rescheduling of their external debt we could conclude that the adoption of an IMF programme could work as a sort of signal of a country’s “good willingness”, which is thus rewarded with the debt relief. The results confirm the existence of a significant effect of the adoption of an IMF programme on the subsequent concession of a debt rescheduling by creditors.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Alternative Title: Adoption of an International Monetary Fund programme and debt rescheduling: an empirical analysis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): International Monetary Fund, Debt relief, Probits, International economic relations
Series Name: Warwick economic research papers
Publisher: University of Warwick, Department of Economics
Place of Publication: Coventry
Date: November 1999
Number: No.542
Number of Pages: 35
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Fifth Framework Programme (European Commission) (FP5)
Grant number: ERB4001GT973677 (FFP)
References: [1] Bäcker A. (1992) “Country balance sheet data vs. traditional macro variables in a logit model to predict debt rescheduling.” Economic Letters, Vol. 38, pp. 207-212. [2] Berg A. and J. Sachs (1988) “The Debt Crisis.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 271-306. [3] Bird G. and T. Orme (1981) “An Analysis of Drawings on the International Monetary Fund by Developing Countries.” World Development, Vol. 9 No. 6, pp. 563-568. [4] Bird G. (1995) “IMF Lending to Developing Countries: Issues and Evidence.” Routledge, London. [5] Boote A. R. and K. Thugge (1997) “Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative.” IMW Working Paper No. 97/24. [6] Cline W.R. (1995) “International debt reexamined.” Institute for International Economic, Washington, DC. [7] Conway P. (1994) “IMF lending programs: participation and impact.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 45, pp. 365-391. [8] Cornelius P. (1987) “The demand for IMF credits by sub-Saharan African countries.” Economics Letters, Vol. 23, pp. 99-102. [9] Ebenroth C-T., Maina Peter C. and M.J. Kemner (1995) “Rescheduling of the Sovereign Debt: A New Role for the Paris Club.” Journal of International Banking Law, Vol. 10, pp. 280-292. [10] Green W.H. (1990) “Econometric Analysis.” Prenctice Hall. [11] Joyce J.P. (1992) “The economic characteristics of IMF program countries.” Economic Letters Vol. 38, pp. 237-242. [12] Killick T. (1995) “IMF Programmes in Developing Countries. Design and Impact.” Routledge, London and New York. [13] Knight M. and J.A. Santaella (1997) “Economic Determinants of IMF financial arrangements.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 54, pp. 405-436. [14] Lanoie P. and S. Lemarbre (1996) “Three approaches to predict the timing and quantity of LDC debt rescheduling.” Applied Economics, Vol. 28, pp. 241-246. [15] Lee S.H. (1991) “Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases.” Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 15, pp. 5-27 [16] Lloyd-Ellis H., McKenzie G.W. and S.H. Thomas (1989) “Using Country Balance Sheet Data to predict Debt Rescheduling.” Economics Letters, Vol. 31, pp. 173-177. [17] Lloyd-Ellis H., McKenzie G.W. and S.H. Thomas (1990) “Predicting the Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling.” Economics Letters, Vol. 32, pp. 67-73. [18] Maddala G.S. (1983) “Limited-Dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics.” Cambridge University Press. [19] Marchesi S. and J.P. Thomas (1999) “IMF conditionality as a screening device.” Economic Journal, Vol. 109, pp. 111-125. [20] Saini K.G. and P.S. Bates (1984) “A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis.” Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 8, pp. 341-356.
URI: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/1634

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