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Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics
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Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Ashby, Ben, Fearon, Elizabeth, Overton, Christopher E., Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina, Pellis, Lorenzo, Quaife, Matthew, Rozhnova, Ganna, Scarabel, Francesca, Stage, Helena B., Swallow, Ben, Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J. and Villela, Daniel (2022) Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, 38 . 100546. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546 ISSN 1755-4365.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546
Abstract
Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RM Therapeutics. Pharmacology |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Pandemics -- Mathematical models , Drug development -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier BV | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 1755-4365 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | March 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Volume: | 38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 100546 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 3 March 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 4 March 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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