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Geo-climatic factors of Malaria morbidity in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2001 to 2019
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Panzi, Eric Kalunda, Okenge, Léon Ngongo, Kabali, Eugénie Hamuli, Tshimungu, Félicien, Dilu, Angèle Keti, Mulangu, Felix and Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin (2022) Geo-climatic factors of Malaria morbidity in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2001 to 2019. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19 (7). e3811. doi:10.3390/ijerph19073811 ISSN 1660-4601.
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WRAP-geo-climatic-factors-Malaria-morbidity-Democratic-Republic-Congo-2001-2019-Kandala-2022.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (2140Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19073811
Abstract
Background: Environmentally related morbidity and mortality still remain high worldwide, although they have decreased significantly in recent decades. This study aims to forecast malaria epidemics taking into account climatic and spatio-temporal variations and therefore identify geo-climatic factors predictive of malaria prevalence from 2001 to 2019 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This is a retrospective longitudinal ecological study. The database of the Directorate of Epidemiological Surveillance including all malaria cases registered in the surveillance system based on positive blood test results, either by microscopy or by a rapid diagnostic test for malaria was used to estimate malaria morbidity and mortality by province of the DRC from 2001 to 2019. The impact of climatic factors on malaria morbidity was modeled using the Generalized Poisson Regression, a predictive model with the dependent variable Y the count of the number of occurrences of malaria cases during a period of time adjusting for risk factors. Results: Our results show that the average prevalence rate of malaria in the last 19 years is 13,246 (1,178,383−1,417,483) cases per 100,000 people at risk. This prevalence increases significantly during the whole study period (p 0.0001). The year 2002 was the most morbid with 2,913,799 (120,9451−3,830,456) cases per 100,000 persons at risk. Adjusting for other factors, a one-day in rainfall resulted in a 7% statistically significant increase in malaria cases (p 0.0001). Malaria morbidity was also significantly associated with geographic location (western, central and northeastern region of the country), total evaporation under shelter, maximum daily temperature at a two-meter altitude and malaria morbidity (p 0.0001). Conclusions: In this study, we have established the association between malaria morbidity and geo-climatic predictors such as geographical location, total evaporation under shelter and maximum daily temperature at a two-meter altitude. We show that the average number of malaria cases increased positively as a function of the average number of rainy days, the total quantity of rainfall and the average daily temperature. These findings are important building blocks to help the government of DRC to set up a warning system integrating the monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and the early detection of anomalies in weather patterns in order to forecast potential large malaria morbidity events.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences > Population, Evidence & Technologies (PET) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Malaria , Malaria -- Epidemiology -- Congo (Democratic Republic), Malaria -- Etiology -- Congo (Democratic Republic) | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | |||||||||
| Publisher: | M D P I AG | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 1660-4601 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 23 March 2022 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 19 | |||||||||
| Number: | 7 | |||||||||
| Article Number: | e3811 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.3390/ijerph19073811 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 November 2022 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 17 November 2022 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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