UNSPECIFIED (1997) Correlation models for childhood epidemics. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 264 (1385). pp. 1149-1156. ISSN 0962-8452

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Abstract

One of the simplest set of equations for the description of epidemics (the SEIR equations) has been much studied, and produces reasonable approximations to the dynamics of communicable disease. However, it has long been recognized that spatial and social structure are important if we are to understand the long-term persistence and detailed behaviour of disease. We will introduce three pair models which attempt to capture the underlying heterogeneous structure by studying the connections and correlations between individuals. Although modelling the correlations necessarily leads to more complex equations, this pair formulation naturally incorporates the local dynamical behaviour generating more realistic persistence. In common with other studies on childhood diseases we will focus our attention on measles, for which the case returns are particularly well documented and long running.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Journal or Publication Title:	PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Publisher:	ROYAL SOC LONDON
ISSN:	0962-8452
Date:	22 August 1997
Volume:	264
Number:	1385
Number of Pages:	8
Page Range:	pp. 1149-1156
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/16439

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