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Likelihood of extreme early flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) across the UK
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Hemming, Deborah, Bell, James, Collier, Rosemary, Dunbar, Tyrone, Dunstone, Nick, Everatt, Matthew, Eyre, Dominic, Kaye, Neil, Korycinska, Anastasia, Pickup, Jon and Scaife, Adam A. (2022) Likelihood of extreme early flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) across the UK. Journal of Economic Entomology, 115 (5). pp. 1342-1349. doi:10.1093/jee/toac012 ISSN 1938-291X.
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WRAP-Likelihood-extreme-early-flight-Myzus-persicae-UK-22.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Open Government Licence: OGL (v3.0). Download (5Mb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toac012
Abstract
Myzus persicae (Sulzer, Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a major global crop pest; it is the primary aphid vector for many damaging viruses and has developed resistance to most insecticides. In temperate regions, the risk of widespread crop infection and yield loss is heightened following warm winters, which encourage rapid population growth and early flight. Estimates of the frequency and magnitude of warm winters are, therefore, helpful for understanding and managing this risk. However, it is difficult to quantify the statistical distribution of climate events, particularly extremes, because climate observations represent just a small sample of the possible climate variations in a region. The purpose of this study was to establish a large-scale relationship between temperature and M. persicae observations across the UK and apply this to a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, which better sample the variability in climate, to quantify the current likelihood of extreme early M. persicae flight across the UK. The timing of M. persicae flight was shown to be significantly related to January-February mean temperature, where a 1°C warmer/cooler temperature relates to about 12 d earlier/later flight. Climate model simulations predict 40% likelihood of experiencing a year with unprecedented early M. persicae flight during the next decade in the UK. Results from this method can help crop managers assess the long-term viability of crops and management practices across the UK and provide early warning information for targeting pest surveillance activities on the locations and timings at highest risk of early M. persicae flight.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QL Zoology S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Green peach aphid, Biosecurity, Agriculture -- Safety measures, Aphids -- Ecology, Climatic changes, Biodiversity -- Climatic factors | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Economic Entomology | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press (OUP) | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 1938-291X | ||||||||
| Official Date: | October 2022 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 115 | ||||||||
| Number: | 5 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1342-1349 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1093/jee/toac012 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This Open Access article contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/). | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © Crown copyright 2022 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 February 2023 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 14 February 2023 | ||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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