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Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
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Parag, K. V., Thompson, Robin N. and Donnelly, C. A. (2022) Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 185 (Supplement 1). S5-S15. doi:10.1111/rssa.12867 ISSN 0964-1998.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12867
Abstract
Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, Rt , is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, Rt encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, rt , i.e., the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of rt are more informative than those of Rt . We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | |||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Viruses -- Reproduction -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases | |||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A | |||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | |||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0964-1998 | |||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | November 2022 | |||||||||||||||
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| Volume: | 185 | |||||||||||||||
| Number: | Supplement 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Page Range: | S5-S15 | |||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1111/rssa.12867 | |||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 25 April 2022 | |||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 5 July 2022 | |||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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