Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions
Clements, Michael P. and Krolzig, Hans-Martin (1998) Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick, Department of Economics. Warwick economic research papers (No.522).
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We propose testing for business cycle asymmetries in Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) models. We derive the parametric restrictions on MS-AR models that rule out types of asymmetries such as deepness, steepness, and sharpness, and set out a testing procedure based on Wald statistics which have standard asymptotics. For a two-regime model, such as that popularised by Hamilton (1989), we show that deepness implies sharpness (and vice versa) while the process is always non-steep. We illustrate with two and three-state MS models of US GNP growth, and with models of US output and employment. Our findings are compared with those obtained from standard non-parametric tests.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HF Commerce|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Business cycles, Information asymmetry, Markov processes, Autoregression (Statistics)|
|Series Name:||Warwick economic research papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick, Department of Economics|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Official Date:||8 December 1998|
|Number of Pages:||24|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|Funder:||Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC)|
|Grant number:||L116251015 (ESRC)|
Beaudry, P., and Koop, G. (1993). Do recessions permanently affect output. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31, 149–163.
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