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Estimating transient rates from cosmological simulations and BPASS
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Briel, Max M., Eldridge, J. J., Stanway, Elizabeth R., Stevance, H. F. and Chrimes, A. A. (2022) Estimating transient rates from cosmological simulations and BPASS. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 514 (1). pp. 1315-1334. doi:10.1093/mnras/stac1100 ISSN 1365-2966.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac1100
Abstract
The detection rate of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational wave (GW) transients is growing exponentially. As the accuracy of the transient rates will significantly improve over the coming decades, so will our understanding of their evolution through cosmic history. To this end, we present predicted rates for EM and GW transients over the age of the Universe using Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) results combined with four cosmic star formation histories (SFH). These include a widely used empirical SFH of Madau & Dickinson and those from three cosmological simulations: MilliMillennium, EAGLE and IllustrisTNG. We find that the choice of SFH changes our predictions: transients with short delay times are most affected by the star formation rate and change up to a factor 2, while long-delay time events tend to depend on the metallicity evolution of star formation and can change the predicted rate up to an order of magnitude. Importantly, we find that the cosmological simulations have very different metallicity evolution that cannot be reproduced by the widely used metallicity model of Langer & Norman, which impacts the binary black hole merger, stripped-envelope supernovae, and LGRBs in the local Universe most acutely. We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the Universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics | ||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society | ||||||||
Publisher: | Oxford University Press (OUP) | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1365-2966 | ||||||||
Official Date: | July 2022 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 514 | ||||||||
Number: | 1 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 1315-1334 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1093/mnras/stac1100 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 9 November 2022 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 9 November 2022 | ||||||||
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