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Inference for a spatio-temporal model with partial spatial data : African horse sickness virus in Morocco
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Fairbanks, Emma L., Baylis, Matthew, Daly, Janet M. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) Inference for a spatio-temporal model with partial spatial data : African horse sickness virus in Morocco. Epidemics, 39 . 100566. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100566 ISSN 17554365.
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WRAP-Inference-spatio-temporal-model-partial-spatial-data-African-horse-Morocco-2022.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (924Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100566
Abstract
African horse sickness virus (AHSV) is a vector-borne virus spread by midges (Culicoides spp.). The virus causes African horse sickness (AHS) disease in some species of equid. AHS is endemic in parts of Africa, previously emerged in Europe and in 2020 caused outbreaks for the first time in parts of Eastern Asia. Here we analyse a unique historic dataset from the 1989-1991 emergence of AHS in Morocco in a naïve population of equids. Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate parameters for a spatial-temporal model using a transmission kernel. These parameters allow us to observe how the transmissibility of AHSV changes according to the distance between premises. We observe how the spatial specificity of the dataset giving the locations of premises on which any infected equids were reported affects parameter estimates. Estimations of transmissibility were similar at the scales of village (location to the nearest 1.3 km) and region (median area 99 km ), but not province (median area 3000 km ). This data-driven result could help inform decisions by policy makers on collecting data during future equine disease outbreaks, as well as policies for AHS control. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.]
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QL Zoology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | African horse sickness virus, Communicable diseases, Insects as carriers of disease, Vector control, Culicoides | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science BV | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 17554365 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | June 2022 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 39 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 100566 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100566 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 17 June 2022 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 17 June 2022 | ||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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