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Conviction Narrative Theory : a theory of choice under radical uncertainty
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Johnson, Samuel G. B., Bilovich, Avri and Tuckett, David (2023) Conviction Narrative Theory : a theory of choice under radical uncertainty. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 46 . e82. doi:10.1017/S0140525X22001157 ISSN 0140-525X.
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WRAP-Conviction-Narrative-Theory-a-theory-of-choice-under-radical-uncertainty-Johnson-22.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (1614Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X22001157
Abstract
Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty—situations where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives—structured representations of causal, temporal, analogical, and valence relationships—rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative that feels ‘right’ to explain the available data; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We propose 12 principles to explain how the mental representations (narratives) interact with four inter-related processes (explanation, simulation, affective evaluation, communication), examining the theoretical and empirical basis for each. We conclude by discussing how CNT can provide a common vocabulary for researchers studying everyday choices across areas of the decision sciences.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | |||||||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | |||||||||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Economics -- Psychological aspects, Decision making -- Economic aspects, Consumer behavior, Cognition | |||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Behavioral and Brain Sciences | |||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | |||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0140-525X | |||||||||||||||
Official Date: | 2023 | |||||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 46 | |||||||||||||||
Number of Pages: | 47 | |||||||||||||||
Article Number: | e82 | |||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1017/S0140525X22001157 | |||||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This article has been accepted for publication in a revised form for publication in https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioral-and-brain-sciences | |||||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||||||||
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press | |||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 31 May 2022 | |||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 30 November 2022 | |||||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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