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How do China's lockdown and post-COVID-19 stimuli impact carbon emissions and economic output? : retrospective estimates and prospective trajectories
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Shao, Shuai, Wang, Chang, Feng, Kuo, Guo, Yue, Feng, Fan, Shan, Yuli, Meng, Jing and Chen, Shiyi (2022) How do China's lockdown and post-COVID-19 stimuli impact carbon emissions and economic output? : retrospective estimates and prospective trajectories. iScience, 25 (5). 104328. doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.104328 ISSN 2589-0042.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104328
Abstract
This paper develops a multi-sector and multi-factor structural gravity model that allows an analytical and quantitative decomposition of the emission and output changes into composition and technique effects. We find that the negative production shock of China's containment policy propagates globally via supply chains, with the carbon-intensive sectors experiencing the greatest carbon emission shocks. We further reveal that China's current stimulus package in 2021-2025 is consistent with China's emission intensity-reduction goals for 2025, but further efforts are required to meet China's carbon emissions-peaking target in 2030 and Cancun 2°C goal. Short-term changes in carbon emissions resulting from lockdowns and initial fiscal stimuli in "economic rescue" period have minor long-term effects, whereas the transitional direction of future fiscal stimulus exerts more predominant impact on long-term carbon emissions. The efficiency improvement effects are more important than the sectoral structure effects of the fiscal stimulus in achieving greener economic growth.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||||||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Economic aspects -- China, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Environmental aspects -- China, Energy policy -- China, Carbon dioxide mitigation -- China | ||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | iScience | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Cell Press | ||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2589-0042 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 20 May 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 104328 | ||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104328 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 10 November 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 10 November 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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