Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences : a modelling study. PLOS Computational Biology, 18 (5). e1010158. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158 ISSN 1553-7358.

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Abstract

Rapid testing strategies that replace the isolation of close contacts through the use of lateral flow device tests (LFTs) have been suggested as a way of controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools that maintain low levels of pupil absences. We developed an individual-based model of a secondary school formed of exclusive year group bubbles (five year groups, with 200 pupils per year) to assess the likely impact of strategies using LFTs in secondary schools over the course of a seven-week half-term on transmission, absences, and testing volume, compared to a policy of isolating year group bubbles upon a pupil returning a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. We also considered the sensitivity of results to levels of participation in rapid testing and underlying model assumptions. While repeated testing of year group bubbles following case detection is less effective at reducing infections than a policy of isolating year group bubbles, strategies involving twice weekly mass testing can reduce infections to lower levels than would occur under year group isolation. By combining regular testing with serial contact testing or isolation, infection levels can be reduced further still. At high levels of pupil participation in lateral flow testing, strategies replacing the isolation of year group bubbles with testing substantially reduce absences, but require a high volume of testing. Our results highlight the conflict between the goals of minimising within-school transmission, minimising absences and minimising testing burden. While rapid testing strategies can reduce school transmission and absences, they may lead to a large number of daily tests.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QP Physiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
SWORD Depositor:	Library Publications Router
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Simulation methods, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Prevention , Immunoassay , Immunoassay -- Methods
Journal or Publication Title:	PLOS Computational Biology
Publisher:	Public Library of Science
ISSN:	1553-7358
Official Date:	27 May 2022
Dates:	Date Event 27 May 2022 Published 2 May 2022 Accepted
Volume:	18
Number:	5
Article Number:	e1010158
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	15 July 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access:	18 July 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID EP/S022244/1 [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266 MR/V009761/1 Medical Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 MR/V038613/1 (JUNIPER) Medical Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 NIHR200411 National Institute for Health Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272
Contributors:	Contribution Name Contributor ID UNSPECIFIED Wu, Joseph T. UNSPECIFIED

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