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Trade, gravity and aggregation

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Breinlich, Holger, Novy, Dennis and Santos Silva , J. M. C. (2023) Trade, gravity and aggregation. Review of Economics and Statistics . doi:10.1162/rest_a_01234 ISSN 0034-6535. (In Press)

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01234

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Abstract

Gravity equations are an important tool in empirical international trade research. We study to what extent sector-level parameters can be recovered from aggregate gravity equations estimated via Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood. We show that in the leading case where trade cost regressors do not vary at the sector level, estimates obtained with aggregate data have a clear interpretation as a weighted average of sectoral elasticities. Otherwise the estimates are biased but researchers may possibly infer the direction of the bias. We illustrate our results by revisiting Baier and Bergstrand's (2007) influential study of the effects of free trade agreements.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Free trade, International trade , Gravity model of international trade, International trade -- Econometric models
Journal or Publication Title: Review of Economics and Statistics
Publisher: MIT Press
ISSN: 0034-6535
Official Date: 2023
Dates:
DateEvent
2023Published
26 July 2022Available
3 June 2022Accepted
Number of Pages: 29
DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01234
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: In Press
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): This is the author's version of the article accepted for publication by Review of Economics and Statistics on 3/6/2022
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Copyright Holders: The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Date of first compliant deposit: 15 June 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access: 15 August 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
ES/P00766X/1[ESRC] Economic and Social Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269
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