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A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments
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Kaye, A. R., Hart, W. S., Bromiley, J., Iwami, S. and Thompson, Robin N. (2022) A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 548 . 111195. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111195 ISSN 0022-5193.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111195
Abstract
Seasonal variations in environmental conditions lead to changing infectious disease epidemic risks at different times of year. The probability that early cases initiate a major epidemic depends on the season in which the pathogen enters the population. The instantaneous epidemic risk (IER) can be tracked. This quantity is straightforward to calculate, and corresponds to the probability of a major epidemic starting from a single case introduced at time 〖t=t〗_0, assuming that environmental conditions remain identical from that time onwards (i.e. for all 〖t≥t〗_0). However, the threat when a pathogen enters the population in fact depends on changes in environmental conditions occurring within the timescale of the initial phase of the outbreak. For that reason, we compare the IER with a different metric: the case epidemic risk (CER). The CER corresponds to the probability of a major epidemic starting from a single case entering the population at time 〖t=t〗_0, accounting for changes in environmental conditions after that time. We show how the IER and CER can be calculated using different epidemiological models (the stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed model and a stochastic host-vector model that is parameterised using temperature data for Miami) in which transmission parameters vary temporally. While the IER is always easy to calculate numerically, the adaptable method we provide for calculating the CER for the host-vector model can also be applied easily and solved using widely available software tools. In line with previous research, we demonstrate that if a pathogen is likely to either invade the population or fade out on a fast timescale compared to changes in environmental conditions, the IER closely matches the CER. However, if this is not the case, the IER and the CER can be significantly different, and so the CER should be used. This demonstrates the need to consider future changes in environmental conditions carefully when assessing the risk posed by emerging pathogens.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine R Medicine > RB Pathology |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Environmental aspects, Epidemics -- Environmental aspects, Environmentally induced diseases | ||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Theoretical Biology | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0022-5193 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 7 September 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 548 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 111195 | ||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111195 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 1 July 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 12 July 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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