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Modelling pandemic behaviour using an economic multiplayer game
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van Baal, Simon, Walasek, Lukasz and Hohwy, Jakob (2022) Modelling pandemic behaviour using an economic multiplayer game. Scientific Reports, 12 (1). 13466. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-17642-w ISSN 2045-2322.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17642-w
Abstract
During a pandemic, isolating oneself from the community limits viral transmission and helps avoid repeated societal lockdowns. This entails a social dilemma—either distance oneself from others for the benefit of the public good or free-ride and enjoy the benefits of freedom. It is not yet understood how the unfamiliar incentive structure and interpersonal context presented by a pandemic together modulate individuals’ approach to this social dilemma. In this preregistered study, we take a game-theoretical approach and investigate people’s decisions to self-isolate, using a novel iterated multiplayer game designed to capture the decision-making environment in the pandemic. To elucidate players’ thinking, we use a variation of the strategy method and elicit beliefs about how much others will self-isolate. Players tend to respond to social norms with abidance, rather than transgression; they resist the temptation to freeride when others are self-isolating. However, they deal with exponential growth poorly, as they only self-isolate sufficiently when lockdowns are imminent. Further, increased collective risk can motivate more self-isolation, even though the link between self-isolation and lockdowns is stochastic. Players underreport the influence of others’ choices on their own, and underestimate others’ self-isolation. We discuss implications for public health, and communication to the public.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | ||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Scientific Reports | ||||||
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK | ||||||
ISSN: | 2045-2322 | ||||||
Official Date: | 5 August 2022 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 12 | ||||||
Number: | 1 | ||||||
Article Number: | 13466 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-022-17642-w | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 23 August 2022 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 23 August 2022 | ||||||
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